Global pressure cranked on Reserve Bank
There is renewed pressure this week on the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates, as the Australian rises on the back of global currency wars.
Many believe money troubles overseas with put the squeeze on Australian exports.
Our dollar hit an eight-month high of US75.28c on Friday morning before settling back in the high-US60c region.
But as the economy continues its delicate transition from mining-led growth to a services and consumption-based realm, economists say the high currency could do some damage.
“We are experiencing the curse of the AAA-world,” JPMorgan chief economist Sally Auld has told News Corp reporters.
The AUD’s strength comes after striking gains in key resources, including iron ore whose price has surged 66 per cent to $US63.74 a tonne in just three months.
On Monday this week, iron ore jumped 19 per cent, before a fall of 9 per cent by Wednesday.
Crude oil prices have seen impressive rises too, up from $US26.05 to $US38.51 in the past month.
Ms Auld says the global money managers are looking favourably at Australian assets.
If there was an easement in concerns about China’s wobbly economy, “you can see how the Aussie might be tempted to rip higher in the next couple of quarters”, she said.
But economists fear the higher currency could bring new concerns.
Strengthening the dollar “has left it at a level that poses a serious threat to the economic outlook”, according to Paul Dales, chief economist at Capital Economics.
Mr Dales said the Reserve Bank’s would be more seriously considering a rates cut.
“The level of the currency is a big deal for an open economy like Australia,” he told The Australian.
Goldman Sachs analysts say the rising currency could trigger a rates cut.
“The problem with leaving interest rates unchanged in Australia while other major central banks are contemplating easing is that it will risk the Australian dollar entering a damaging appreciation,” the investors said in a note to clients.
In a recent interview with The Wall Street Journal, RBA board member John Edwards said he wants to see the dollar closer to US65c.
“If you look around the world at the moment, I think almost every central bank would like a lower currency ... and I think we would be in that group of countries,” Dr Philip Lowe, the central bank’s deputy governor, said this week.
“That is a set of market dynamics that probably lifts higher-yielding AAA-rated currencies like the Australian dollar,” Westpac’s global head of foreign exchange, Robert Rennie, told News Corp.
“But the iron ore derivative market may have become somewhat divorced from fundamentals and that is slightly worrying.
“I would be watching closely for additional guidance from the RBA.”
The RBA said “further depreciation seems both likely and necessary, particularly given the significant declines in commodity prices,” back when the dollar was near US75c in July last year.
The RBA says that since then, the currency “has been adjusting”.