IMF says local debt risky
The IMF says Australia’s high level of household debt could expose it to global economic shocks and crises.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a study into highly leveraged households and financial stability singles out Australia.
Its figures show household debt has risen to 100 per cent of GDP, while the ratio in other advanced economies is closer to 63 per cent.
“Higher growth in household debt is associated with a greater probability of banking crises,” according to the IMF's latest Global Financial Stability Report.
“New empirical studies — as well as recent experience from the global financial crisis — have shown that increases in private sector credit, including household debt, may raise the likelihood of a financial crisis and could lead to lower growth.”
The IMF says household debt around the world “remains high by historical standards” and “has kept growing in other advanced economies such as Australia and Canada”.
The report cited research showing that high household indebtedness can cause “a significant debt overhang when a country faces extreme negative shocks”.
“The global financial crisis suggests that high household debt can be a source of financial vulnerability and lead to prolonged recessions.
It adds to repeated warnings from the Reserve Bank of Australia over rising levels of household debt and slow wages growth, which it says will leave consumers struggling to meet mortgage repayments when interest rates rise.
The cash rate is on hold for now, partly due to the RBA’s concerns.
“Growth in housing debt has been outpacing the slow growth in household incomes for some time,” RBA governor Dr Philip Lowe said.