Trade gap now worst on record
Australia’s imports are exceeding exports by nearly $3.9 billion, as the nation posts its worst monthly trade deficit on record.
ABS data says the deficit of $3,888 million in April beats the previous record of $3,881 million, which was set amid slumping commodity prices in February 2008.
Economists are reeling, as many had expected a poor result, but not this bad.
A Reuters survey before the official figures gave an average prediction of a deficit of $2.25 billion, a number that was already around twice the previous month's trade shortfall.
The actual result is over three times the downwardly revised March figure of $1,231 million seasonally adjusted deficit.
The value of goods and services exports dropped 6 per cent (over $1.56 billion, seasonally adjusted) while import values jumped 4 per cent; nearly $1.1 billion.
In interviews with the ABC, JP Morgan economist Tom Kennedy described the trade data as a “disaster”, and UBS chief economist Scott Haslem said while some deficits during the global financial crisis were worse as a proportion of the economy, it was still a very poor set of numbers.
Export figures were hit hardest by slumping coal and iron ore, which were down by 22 per cent and 13 per cent respectively.
NAB senior economist David de Garis told reporters that the data reflects of China's economic slowdown and transitional phase.
“It's showing that the slowdown in the Chinese economy is affecting the amount of cash coming into the Australian economy,” he said.
“[It] means a little bit slower economic growth and slower income growth too.”
But TD Securities chief Asia-Pacific economist Annette Beacher told reporters that the focus on China could be misleading.
“China is Australia's number one trading partner ... in terms of exports, for example 2015 to date 30 odd per cent of our exports do go to China,” she said.
“But what I like to look at is which country is actually giving us more dollars in net terms, as in exports minus imports ... for the first four months of 2015 Japan is actually our number one trading partner.
“Some of that is actually because imports from Japan for Australia is actually only 7 per cent of imports, so it's more about that we import less from Japan.”